Beijing Renhe 1–2 Taizhou Yuanda: Result & Stats

Beijing Renhe

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Taizhou Yuanda

10/14/2020

League One · Round 10Shuangliu Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Beijing Renhe39%

×Draw25%

Taizhou Yuanda36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing RenheExpected goals in this matchTaizhou Yuanda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.44

Beijing Renhe

1.51

Taizhou Yuanda

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.88

creates per match

1.14

1.75

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Beijing Renhe

1.88

Taizhou Yuanda

1.14

allows per match

Beijing Renhe

1.75

Taizhou Yuanda

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Taizhou Yuanda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Renhe ↓

Taizhou Yuanda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Beijing Renhe or draw

64%

Beijing Renhe or Taizhou Yuanda

75%

Draw or Taizhou Yuanda

61%

Winning margin

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+

19%

Taizhou Yuanda wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals

78%

Beijing Renhe 2+ goals

44%

Beijing Renhe 3+ goals

19%

Taizhou Yuanda 1+ goals

76%

Taizhou Yuanda 2+ goals

42%

Taizhou Yuanda 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)

52%

Taizhou Yuanda (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Renhe at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Taizhou Yuanda away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Renhe attack 1.88 + Taizhou Yuanda defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.51

Taizhou Yuanda attack 1.14 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Beijing Renhe scores more

39%

level

25%

Taizhou Yuanda scores more

36%

Beijing Renhe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Beijing Renhe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff