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Taiwan CPC vs Taipei Red Lions — Taiwan Football Premier League 2019

Taiwan CPC
Taiwan CPC
FT
2 – 0
Taipei Red Lions
Taipei Red Lions
4/14/2021Taiwan Football Premier LeagueTaiwan Football Premier League · Round 2Kaohsiung National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Taiwan CPC53%
×Draw23%
Taipei Red Lions24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taiwan CPC
1.84
Taipei Red Lions
1.17

Taiwan CPC creates 57% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 40 away

creates per match

Taiwan CPC
1.13
Taipei Red Lions
0.70

allows per match

Taiwan CPC
1.63
Taipei Red Lions
2.55

finishing

Taiwan CPC+0.00on par
Taipei Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taiwan CPC ↓

Taipei Red Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Taiwan CPC or draw
76%
Taiwan CPC or Taipei Red Lions
77%
Draw or Taipei Red Lions
47%

Winning margin

Taiwan CPC wins by 2+
30%
Taipei Red Lions wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Taiwan CPC 1+ goals
84%
Taiwan CPC 2+ goals
55%
Taiwan CPC 3+ goals
28%
Taipei Red Lions 1+ goals
69%
Taipei Red Lions 2+ goals
33%
Taipei Red Lions 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Taiwan CPC (draw refunded)
69%
Taipei Red Lions (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taiwan CPC at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Taipei Red Lions away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.55 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taiwan CPC attack 1.13 + Taipei Red Lions defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 1.84

Taipei Red Lions attack 0.70 + Taiwan CPC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Taiwan CPC scores more
53%
level
23%
Taipei Red Lions scores more
24%

Taiwan CPC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Taiwan CPC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taiwan Football Premier League: Taiwan CPC 2–0 Taipei Red Lions

Taiwan CPC beat Taipei Red Lions 2-0 in Taiwan Football Premier League on April 14, 2021.

The match was played at Kaohsiung National Stadium in Gaoxiong.