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Taipei Red Lions vs Taiwan CPC — Taiwan Football Premier League 2019

Taipei Red Lions
Taipei Red Lions
CANC
08:00
Taiwan CPC
Taiwan CPC
11/24/2021Taiwan Football Premier LeagueTaiwan Football Premier League · Round 7National Artificial Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Taipei Red Lions27%
×Draw22%
Taiwan CPC50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taipei Red Lions
1.34
Taiwan CPC
1.90

Taiwan CPC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

creates per match

Taipei Red Lions
0.85
Taiwan CPC
1.50

allows per match

Taipei Red Lions
2.30
Taiwan CPC
1.83

finishing

Taipei Red Lions+0.00on par
Taiwan CPC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taipei Red Lions ↓

Taiwan CPC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Taipei Red Lions or draw
50%
Taipei Red Lions or Taiwan CPC
78%
Draw or Taiwan CPC
73%

Winning margin

Taipei Red Lions wins by 2+
12%
Taiwan CPC wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Taipei Red Lions 1+ goals
74%
Taipei Red Lions 2+ goals
39%
Taipei Red Lions 3+ goals
15%
Taiwan CPC 1+ goals
85%
Taiwan CPC 2+ goals
56%
Taiwan CPC 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Taipei Red Lions (draw refunded)
35%
Taiwan CPC (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taipei Red Lions at home — creates 0.85, concedes 2.30 · 20 matches

Taiwan CPC away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taipei Red Lions attack 0.85 + Taiwan CPC defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.34

Taiwan CPC attack 1.50 + Taipei Red Lions defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Taipei Red Lions scores more
27%
level
22%
Taiwan CPC scores more
50%

Taiwan CPC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Taiwan CPC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Taipei Red Lions host Taiwan CPC

November 24, 2021: Taipei Red Lions take on Taiwan CPC in Taiwan Football Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Taipei Red Lions host Taiwan CPC at National Artificial Football Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.