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Taiwan CPC vs NTUPES — Taiwan Football Premier League 2019

Taiwan CPC
Taiwan CPC
FT
1 – 1
NTUPES
NTUPES
4/18/2021Taiwan Football Premier LeagueTaiwan Football Premier League · Round 2Kaohsiung National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Taiwan CPC53%
×Draw22%
NTUPES25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taiwan CPC
1.95
NTUPES
1.26

Taiwan CPC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 30 away

creates per match

Taiwan CPC
1.13
NTUPES
0.90

allows per match

Taiwan CPC
1.63
NTUPES
2.77

finishing

Taiwan CPC+0.00on par
NTUPES+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taiwan CPC ↓

NTUPES →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Taiwan CPC or draw
75%
Taiwan CPC or NTUPES
78%
Draw or NTUPES
47%

Winning margin

Taiwan CPC wins by 2+
31%
NTUPES wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Taiwan CPC 1+ goals
86%
Taiwan CPC 2+ goals
58%
Taiwan CPC 3+ goals
31%
NTUPES 1+ goals
72%
NTUPES 2+ goals
36%
NTUPES 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Taiwan CPC (draw refunded)
68%
NTUPES (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taiwan CPC at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

NTUPES away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taiwan CPC attack 1.13 + NTUPES defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 1.95

NTUPES attack 0.90 + Taiwan CPC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Taiwan CPC scores more
53%
level
22%
NTUPES scores more
25%

Taiwan CPC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Taiwan CPC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taiwan Football Premier League: Taiwan CPC 1–1 NTUPES

Taiwan CPC and NTUPES drew 1-1 in Taiwan Football Premier League on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Kaohsiung National Stadium in Gaoxiong.