Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

NTUPES vs Taiwan CPC — Taiwan Football Premier League 2019

NTUPES
NTUPES
FT
0 – 3
Taiwan CPC
Taiwan CPC
11/28/2021Taiwan Football Premier LeagueTaiwan Football Premier League · Round 7Taiyuan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

NTUPES29%
×Draw22%
Taiwan CPC50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NTUPES
1.51
Taiwan CPC
2.04

Taiwan CPC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 6 away

creates per match

NTUPES
1.19
Taiwan CPC
1.50

allows per match

NTUPES
2.58
Taiwan CPC
1.83

finishing

NTUPES+0.00on par
Taiwan CPC+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NTUPES ↓

Taiwan CPC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

NTUPES or draw
50%
NTUPES or Taiwan CPC
78%
Draw or Taiwan CPC
71%

Winning margin

NTUPES wins by 2+
13%
Taiwan CPC wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

NTUPES 1+ goals
78%
NTUPES 2+ goals
44%
NTUPES 3+ goals
19%
Taiwan CPC 1+ goals
87%
Taiwan CPC 2+ goals
60%
Taiwan CPC 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

NTUPES (draw refunded)
37%
Taiwan CPC (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NTUPES at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

Taiwan CPC away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NTUPES attack 1.19 + Taiwan CPC defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.51

Taiwan CPC attack 1.50 + NTUPES defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

NTUPES scores more
29%
level
22%
Taiwan CPC scores more
50%

Taiwan CPC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Taiwan CPC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NTUPES vs Taiwan CPC

Taiwan CPC beat NTUPES 3-0 in Taiwan Football Premier League on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Taiyuan Stadium in Taichung City.