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Taipower vs NTUPES — Taiwan Football Premier League 2019

Taipower
Taipower
FT
4 – 0
NTUPES
NTUPES
5/5/2021Taiwan Football Premier LeagueTaiwan Football Premier League · Round 4Kaohsiung National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Taipower66%
×Draw19%
NTUPES15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taipower
2.29
NTUPES
0.98

Taipower creates 134% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 30 away

creates per match

Taipower
1.82
NTUPES
0.90

allows per match

Taipower
1.05
NTUPES
2.77

finishing

Taipower+0.00on par
NTUPES+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taipower ↓

NTUPES →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Taipower or draw
85%
Taipower or NTUPES
81%
Draw or NTUPES
34%

Winning margin

Taipower wins by 2+
43%
NTUPES wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Taipower 1+ goals
90%
Taipower 2+ goals
66%
Taipower 3+ goals
40%
NTUPES 1+ goals
62%
NTUPES 2+ goals
26%
NTUPES 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Taipower (draw refunded)
82%
NTUPES (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taipower at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.05 · 66 matches

NTUPES away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taipower attack 1.82 + NTUPES defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.29

NTUPES attack 0.90 + Taipower defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Taipower scores more
66%
level
19%
NTUPES scores more
15%

Taipower at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Taipower will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Taipower vs NTUPES

Taipower beat NTUPES 4-0 in Taiwan Football Premier League on May 5, 2021.

The match was played at Kaohsiung National Stadium in Gaoxiong.