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NTUPES vs Taipower — Taiwan Football Premier League 2019

NTUPES
NTUPES
FT
0 – 2
Taipower
Taipower
4/11/2021Taiwan Football Premier LeagueTaiwan Football Premier League · Round 1Hsinchu County Second Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

NTUPES21%
×Draw21%
Taipower58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NTUPES
1.17
Taipower
2.08

Taipower creates 78% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 56 away

creates per match

NTUPES
1.19
Taipower
1.57

allows per match

NTUPES
2.58
Taipower
1.14

finishing

NTUPES+0.00on par
Taipower+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NTUPES ↓

Taipower →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

NTUPES or draw
42%
NTUPES or Taipower
79%
Draw or Taipower
79%

Winning margin

NTUPES wins by 2+
8%
Taipower wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

NTUPES 1+ goals
69%
NTUPES 2+ goals
33%
NTUPES 3+ goals
11%
Taipower 1+ goals
87%
Taipower 2+ goals
61%
Taipower 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

NTUPES (draw refunded)
27%
Taipower (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NTUPES at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

Taipower away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NTUPES attack 1.19 + Taipower defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Taipower attack 1.57 + NTUPES defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

NTUPES scores more
21%
level
21%
Taipower scores more
58%

Taipower at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Taipower will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NTUPES vs Taipower

Taipower beat NTUPES 2-0 in Taiwan Football Premier League on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Hsinchu County Second Stadium in Zhubei City.