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Taipower vs Ming Chuan University — Taiwan Football Premier League 2019

Taipower
Taipower
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ming Chuan University
Ming Chuan University
H. Yan 75'
Jackson 73' (OG)
C. Chen 10'
M. Del Canto 26'
3/1/2026Taiwan Football Premier LeagueTaiwan Football Premier League · Round 13Nanzih Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Taipower71%
×Draw17%
Ming Chuan University12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taipower
2.44
Ming Chuan University
0.88

Taipower creates 177% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 45 away

creates per match

Taipower
1.80
Ming Chuan University
0.71

allows per match

Taipower
1.05
Ming Chuan University
3.07

finishing

Taipower+0.00on par
Ming Chuan University+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taipower ↓

Ming Chuan University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Taipower or draw
88%
Taipower or Ming Chuan University
83%
Draw or Ming Chuan University
29%

Winning margin

Taipower wins by 2+
49%
Ming Chuan University wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Taipower 1+ goals
91%
Taipower 2+ goals
70%
Taipower 3+ goals
43%
Ming Chuan University 1+ goals
59%
Ming Chuan University 2+ goals
22%
Ming Chuan University 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Taipower (draw refunded)
86%
Ming Chuan University (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taipower at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.05 · 65 matches

Ming Chuan University away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.07 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taipower attack 1.80 + Ming Chuan University defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.44

Ming Chuan University attack 0.71 + Taipower defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Taipower scores more
71%
level
17%
Ming Chuan University scores more
12%

Taipower at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Taipower will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
C. Chen
26'
M. Del Canto
73'
JacksonOwn goal
75'
H. Yan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Taipower vs Ming Chuan University

Taipower beat Ming Chuan University 3-1 in Taiwan Football Premier League on March 1, 2026.

Goals: C. Chen (10'), M. Del Canto (26'), Jackson (73' o.g.), H. Yan (75').

The match was played at Nanzih Football Stadium in Kaohsiung (Gaoxiong).