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Ming Chuan University vs Taipower — Taiwan Football Premier League 2019

Ming Chuan University
Ming Chuan University
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Taipower
Taipower
W. Beixi 83'
Matthias 39', 8'
Q. Bairui 87'
L. Jianxun 65', 45+2'
C. Zhaoan 46'
10/26/2025Taiwan Football Premier LeagueTaiwan Football Premier League · Round 6Ming Chuan University Taoyuan Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Ming Chuan University20%
×Draw21%
Taipower59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ming Chuan University
1.10
Taipower
2.05

Taipower creates 86% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 56 away

creates per match

Ming Chuan University
1.06
Taipower
1.57

allows per match

Ming Chuan University
2.53
Taipower
1.14

finishing

Ming Chuan University+0.00on par
Taipower+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ming Chuan University ↓

Taipower →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ming Chuan University or draw
41%
Ming Chuan University or Taipower
79%
Draw or Taipower
80%

Winning margin

Ming Chuan University wins by 2+
7%
Taipower wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Ming Chuan University 1+ goals
67%
Ming Chuan University 2+ goals
30%
Ming Chuan University 3+ goals
10%
Taipower 1+ goals
87%
Taipower 2+ goals
61%
Taipower 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Ming Chuan University (draw refunded)
25%
Taipower (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ming Chuan University at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.53 · 62 matches

Taipower away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ming Chuan University attack 1.06 + Taipower defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Taipower attack 1.57 + Ming Chuan University defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ming Chuan University scores more
20%
level
21%
Taipower scores more
59%

Taipower at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Taipower will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
Matthias
39'
Matthias
45+2'
L. Jianxun
46'
C. Zhaoan
65'
L. Jianxun
83'
W. Beixi
87'
Q. Bairui

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taiwan Football Premier League: Ming Chuan University 3–4 Taipower

Taipower beat Ming Chuan University 4-3 in Taiwan Football Premier League on October 26, 2025.

Goals: Matthias (8', 39'), L. Jianxun (45+2', 65'), C. Zhaoan (46'), W. Beixi (83'), Q. Bairui (87').

The match was played at Ming Chuan University Taoyuan Campus in Taipeh.