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Taipei Red Lions vs Tainan City — Taiwan Football Premier League 2019

Taipei Red Lions
Taipei Red Lions
FT
0 – 5
Tainan City
Tainan City
11/28/2021Taiwan Football Premier LeagueTaiwan Football Premier League · Round 7National Taiwan University Zhubei Branch Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Taipei Red Lions14%
×Draw18%
Tainan City69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taipei Red Lions
0.99
Tainan City
2.43

Tainan City creates 145% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 56 away

creates per match

Taipei Red Lions
0.85
Tainan City
2.57

allows per match

Taipei Red Lions
2.30
Tainan City
1.14

finishing

Taipei Red Lions+0.00on par
Tainan City+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taipei Red Lions ↓

Tainan City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Taipei Red Lions or draw
31%
Taipei Red Lions or Tainan City
82%
Draw or Tainan City
86%

Winning margin

Taipei Red Lions wins by 2+
5%
Tainan City wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Taipei Red Lions 1+ goals
63%
Taipei Red Lions 2+ goals
26%
Taipei Red Lions 3+ goals
8%
Tainan City 1+ goals
91%
Tainan City 2+ goals
69%
Tainan City 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Taipei Red Lions (draw refunded)
17%
Tainan City (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taipei Red Lions at home — creates 0.85, concedes 2.30 · 20 matches

Tainan City away — creates 2.57, concedes 1.14 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taipei Red Lions attack 0.85 + Tainan City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.99

Tainan City attack 2.57 + Taipei Red Lions defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Taipei Red Lions scores more
14%
level
18%
Tainan City scores more
69%

Tainan City at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Tainan City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taiwan Football Premier League: Taipei Red Lions 0–5 Tainan City

Tainan City beat Taipei Red Lions 5-0 in Taiwan Football Premier League on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at National Taiwan University Zhubei Branch Stadium in Zhubei City.