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Tainan City vs Taipei Red Lions — Taiwan Football Premier League 2019

Tainan City
Tainan City
FT
3 – 1
Taipei Red Lions
Taipei Red Lions
4/18/2021Taiwan Football Premier LeagueTaiwan Football Premier League · Round 2Hsinchu County Second Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Tainan City70%
×Draw17%
Taipei Red Lions13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tainan City
2.48
Taipei Red Lions
0.95

Tainan City creates 161% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 40 away

creates per match

Tainan City
2.41
Taipei Red Lions
0.70

allows per match

Tainan City
1.20
Taipei Red Lions
2.55

finishing

Tainan City+0.00on par
Taipei Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tainan City ↓

Taipei Red Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Tainan City or draw
87%
Tainan City or Taipei Red Lions
83%
Draw or Taipei Red Lions
30%

Winning margin

Tainan City wins by 2+
48%
Taipei Red Lions wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tainan City 1+ goals
92%
Tainan City 2+ goals
70%
Tainan City 3+ goals
44%
Taipei Red Lions 1+ goals
61%
Taipei Red Lions 2+ goals
25%
Taipei Red Lions 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tainan City (draw refunded)
85%
Taipei Red Lions (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tainan City at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.20 · 64 matches

Taipei Red Lions away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.55 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tainan City attack 2.41 + Taipei Red Lions defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.48

Taipei Red Lions attack 0.70 + Tainan City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Tainan City scores more
70%
level
17%
Taipei Red Lions scores more
13%

Tainan City at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Tainan City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taiwan Football Premier League: Tainan City 3–1 Taipei Red Lions

Tainan City beat Taipei Red Lions 3-1 in Taiwan Football Premier League on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Hsinchu County Second Stadium in Zhubei City.