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Taichung Futuro vs AC Taipei — Taiwan Football Premier League 2019

Taichung Futuro
Taichung Futuro
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AC Taipei
AC Taipei
11/3/2024Taiwan Football Premier LeagueTaiwan Football Premier League · Round 20Xitun Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Taichung Futuro54%
×Draw24%
AC Taipei22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taichung Futuro
1.75
AC Taipei
1.03

Taichung Futuro creates 70% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 33 away

creates per match

Taichung Futuro
1.96
AC Taipei
1.27

allows per match

Taichung Futuro
0.79
AC Taipei
1.55

finishing

Taichung Futuro+0.00on par
AC Taipei+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taichung Futuro ↓

AC Taipei →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Taichung Futuro or draw
78%
Taichung Futuro or AC Taipei
76%
Draw or AC Taipei
46%

Winning margin

Taichung Futuro wins by 2+
30%
AC Taipei wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Taichung Futuro 1+ goals
83%
Taichung Futuro 2+ goals
52%
Taichung Futuro 3+ goals
25%
AC Taipei 1+ goals
64%
AC Taipei 2+ goals
28%
AC Taipei 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Taichung Futuro (draw refunded)
71%
AC Taipei (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taichung Futuro at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.79 · 52 matches

AC Taipei away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taichung Futuro attack 1.96 + AC Taipei defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.75

AC Taipei attack 1.27 + Taichung Futuro defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Taichung Futuro scores more
54%
level
24%
AC Taipei scores more
22%

Taichung Futuro at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Taichung Futuro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Taichung Futuro vs AC Taipei

AC Taipei beat Taichung Futuro 1-0 in Taiwan Football Premier League on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Xitun Football Stadium in Taichung City.