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AC Taipei vs Taichung Futuro — Taiwan Football Premier League 2019

AC Taipei
AC Taipei
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Taichung Futuro
Taichung Futuro
6/23/2024Taiwan Football Premier LeagueTaiwan Football Premier League · Round 9University of Taipei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

AC Taipei30%
×Draw25%
Taichung Futuro45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Taipei
1.26
Taichung Futuro
1.58

Taichung Futuro creates 25% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 69 away

creates per match

AC Taipei
1.53
Taichung Futuro
1.58

allows per match

AC Taipei
1.59
Taichung Futuro
0.99

finishing

AC Taipei+0.00on par
Taichung Futuro+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Taipei ↓

Taichung Futuro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

AC Taipei or draw
55%
AC Taipei or Taichung Futuro
75%
Draw or Taichung Futuro
70%

Winning margin

AC Taipei wins by 2+
13%
Taichung Futuro wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

AC Taipei 1+ goals
72%
AC Taipei 2+ goals
36%
AC Taipei 3+ goals
13%
Taichung Futuro 1+ goals
79%
Taichung Futuro 2+ goals
47%
Taichung Futuro 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

AC Taipei (draw refunded)
41%
Taichung Futuro (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Taipei at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.59 · 32 matches

Taichung Futuro away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.99 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Taipei attack 1.53 + Taichung Futuro defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.26

Taichung Futuro attack 1.58 + AC Taipei defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AC Taipei scores more
30%
level
25%
Taichung Futuro scores more
45%

Taichung Futuro at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Taichung Futuro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AC Taipei vs Taichung Futuro

Taichung Futuro beat AC Taipei 1-0 in Taiwan Football Premier League on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at University of Taipei in Taipei City.