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Tadamon Sour vs Salam Zgharta — Premier League 2019

Tadamon Sour
Tadamon Sour
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Salam Zgharta
Salam Zgharta
12/11/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Sour Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tadamon Sour56%
×Draw25%
Salam Zgharta19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tadamon Sour
1.57
Salam Zgharta
0.80

Tadamon Sour creates 96% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tadamon Sour
0.89
Salam Zgharta
0.47

allows per match

Tadamon Sour
1.13
Salam Zgharta
2.26

finishing

Tadamon Sour+0.00on par
Salam Zgharta+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tadamon Sour ↓

Salam Zgharta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tadamon Sour or draw
81%
Tadamon Sour or Salam Zgharta
75%
Draw or Salam Zgharta
44%

Winning margin

Tadamon Sour wins by 2+
29%
Salam Zgharta wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tadamon Sour 1+ goals
79%
Tadamon Sour 2+ goals
46%
Tadamon Sour 3+ goals
21%
Salam Zgharta 1+ goals
55%
Salam Zgharta 2+ goals
19%
Salam Zgharta 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tadamon Sour (draw refunded)
74%
Salam Zgharta (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tadamon Sour at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.13 · 61 matches

Salam Zgharta away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tadamon Sour attack 0.89 + Salam Zgharta defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.57

Salam Zgharta attack 0.47 + Tadamon Sour defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tadamon Sour scores more
56%
level
25%
Salam Zgharta scores more
19%

Tadamon Sour at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tadamon Sour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tadamon Sour 1–1 Salam Zgharta

Tadamon Sour and Salam Zgharta drew 1-1 in Premier League on December 11, 2022.

The match was played at Sour Stadium in Sour.