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Salam Zgharta vs Tadamon Sour — Premier League 2019

Salam Zgharta
Salam Zgharta
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tadamon Sour
Tadamon Sour
11/8/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Fouad Shehab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Salam Zgharta30%
×Draw28%
Tadamon Sour42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salam Zgharta
1.05
Tadamon Sour
1.31

Tadamon Sour creates 25% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 72 away

creates per match

Salam Zgharta
0.67
Tadamon Sour
0.78

allows per match

Salam Zgharta
1.83
Tadamon Sour
1.43

finishing

Salam Zgharta+0.00on par
Tadamon Sour+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salam Zgharta ↓

Tadamon Sour →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Salam Zgharta or draw
58%
Salam Zgharta or Tadamon Sour
72%
Draw or Tadamon Sour
70%

Winning margin

Salam Zgharta wins by 2+
11%
Tadamon Sour wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Salam Zgharta 1+ goals
65%
Salam Zgharta 2+ goals
28%
Salam Zgharta 3+ goals
9%
Tadamon Sour 1+ goals
73%
Tadamon Sour 2+ goals
38%
Tadamon Sour 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Salam Zgharta (draw refunded)
41%
Tadamon Sour (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salam Zgharta at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Tadamon Sour away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.43 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salam Zgharta attack 0.67 + Tadamon Sour defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.05

Tadamon Sour attack 0.78 + Salam Zgharta defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Salam Zgharta scores more
30%
level
28%
Tadamon Sour scores more
42%

Tadamon Sour at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tadamon Sour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salam Zgharta vs Tadamon Sour

Tadamon Sour beat Salam Zgharta 2-0 in Premier League on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Fouad Shehab Stadium in Jounie.