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Tadamon Sour vs Al Akhaa Al Ahli — Premier League 2019

Tadamon Sour
Tadamon Sour
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
1/15/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Round - 2Sour Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Tadamon Sour41%
×Draw30%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tadamon Sour
1.15
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
0.91

Tadamon Sour creates 26% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 29 away

creates per match

Tadamon Sour
0.89
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
0.69

allows per match

Tadamon Sour
1.13
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
1.41

finishing

Tadamon Sour+0.00on par
Al Akhaa Al Ahli+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tadamon Sour ↓

Al Akhaa Al Ahli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tadamon Sour or draw
71%
Tadamon Sour or Al Akhaa Al Ahli
70%
Draw or Al Akhaa Al Ahli
59%

Winning margin

Tadamon Sour wins by 2+
17%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tadamon Sour 1+ goals
68%
Tadamon Sour 2+ goals
32%
Tadamon Sour 3+ goals
11%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli 1+ goals
60%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli 2+ goals
23%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tadamon Sour (draw refunded)
59%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tadamon Sour at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.13 · 61 matches

Al Akhaa Al Ahli away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tadamon Sour attack 0.89 + Al Akhaa Al Ahli defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.15

Al Akhaa Al Ahli attack 0.69 + Tadamon Sour defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tadamon Sour scores more
41%
level
30%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli scores more
29%

Tadamon Sour at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tadamon Sour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tadamon Sour 2–0 Al Akhaa Al Ahli

Tadamon Sour beat Al Akhaa Al Ahli 2-0 in Premier League on January 15, 2023.

The match was played at Sour Stadium in Sour.