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Al Akhaa Al Ahli vs Tadamon Sour — Premier League 2019

Al Akhaa Al Ahli
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tadamon Sour
Tadamon Sour
12/25/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Al Ahed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Al Akhaa Al Ahli41%
×Draw30%
Tadamon Sour29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Akhaa Al Ahli
1.17
Tadamon Sour
0.94

Al Akhaa Al Ahli creates 24% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 72 away

creates per match

Al Akhaa Al Ahli
0.90
Tadamon Sour
0.78

allows per match

Al Akhaa Al Ahli
1.10
Tadamon Sour
1.43

finishing

Al Akhaa Al Ahli+0.00on par
Tadamon Sour+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Akhaa Al Ahli ↓

Tadamon Sour →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Akhaa Al Ahli or draw
71%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli or Tadamon Sour
70%
Draw or Tadamon Sour
59%

Winning margin

Al Akhaa Al Ahli wins by 2+
18%
Tadamon Sour wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Akhaa Al Ahli 1+ goals
69%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli 2+ goals
33%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli 3+ goals
11%
Tadamon Sour 1+ goals
61%
Tadamon Sour 2+ goals
24%
Tadamon Sour 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Akhaa Al Ahli (draw refunded)
58%
Tadamon Sour (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Akhaa Al Ahli at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

Tadamon Sour away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.43 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Akhaa Al Ahli attack 0.90 + Tadamon Sour defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.17

Tadamon Sour attack 0.78 + Al Akhaa Al Ahli defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Akhaa Al Ahli scores more
41%
level
30%
Tadamon Sour scores more
29%

Al Akhaa Al Ahli at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Akhaa Al Ahli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Akhaa Al Ahli vs Tadamon Sour

Al Akhaa Al Ahli beat Tadamon Sour 1-0 in Premier League on December 25, 2020.

The match was played at Al Ahed Stadium in Beirut.