Tadamon Sour 1–1 Al Ahli Nabatiya: Result & Stats

Tadamon Sour

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Al Ahli Nabatiya

8/27/2023

Premier League · Round 4Al Ansar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tadamon Sour42%

×Draw31%

Al Ahli Nabatiya27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tadamon SourExpected goals in this matchAl Ahli Nabatiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.83

Tadamon Sour

1.10

Al Ahli Nabatiya

0.83

Tadamon Sour creates 33% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 13 away

0.89

creates per match

0.54

1.13

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Tadamon Sour

0.89

Al Ahli Nabatiya

0.54

allows per match

Tadamon Sour

1.13

Al Ahli Nabatiya

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tadamon Sour+0.00on par

Al Ahli Nabatiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tadamon Sour ↓

Al Ahli Nabatiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Tadamon Sour or draw

73%

Tadamon Sour or Al Ahli Nabatiya

69%

Draw or Al Ahli Nabatiya

58%

Winning margin

Tadamon Sour wins by 2+

17%

Al Ahli Nabatiya wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tadamon Sour 1+ goals

67%

Tadamon Sour 2+ goals

30%

Tadamon Sour 3+ goals

10%

Al Ahli Nabatiya 1+ goals

56%

Al Ahli Nabatiya 2+ goals

20%

Al Ahli Nabatiya 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tadamon Sour (draw refunded)

60%

Al Ahli Nabatiya (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tadamon Sour at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.13 · 61 matches

Al Ahli Nabatiya away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tadamon Sour attack 0.89 + Al Ahli Nabatiya defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.10

Al Ahli Nabatiya attack 0.54 + Tadamon Sour defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tadamon Sour scores more

42%

level

31%

Al Ahli Nabatiya scores more

27%

Tadamon Sour at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tadamon Sour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff