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Al Ahli Nabatiya vs Tadamon Sour — Premier League 2019

Al Ahli Nabatiya
Al Ahli Nabatiya
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tadamon Sour
Tadamon Sour
2/4/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Round - 1Kafar El Jouz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Al Ahli Nabatiya36%
×Draw31%
Tadamon Sour33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Nabatiya
1.02
Tadamon Sour
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 72 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Nabatiya
0.62
Tadamon Sour
0.78

allows per match

Al Ahli Nabatiya
1.15
Tadamon Sour
1.43

finishing

Al Ahli Nabatiya+0.00on par
Tadamon Sour+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Nabatiya ↓

Tadamon Sour →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Ahli Nabatiya or draw
67%
Al Ahli Nabatiya or Tadamon Sour
69%
Draw or Tadamon Sour
64%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Nabatiya wins by 2+
14%
Tadamon Sour wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al Ahli Nabatiya 1+ goals
64%
Al Ahli Nabatiya 2+ goals
27%
Al Ahli Nabatiya 3+ goals
8%
Tadamon Sour 1+ goals
62%
Tadamon Sour 2+ goals
25%
Tadamon Sour 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Nabatiya (draw refunded)
52%
Tadamon Sour (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Nabatiya at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Tadamon Sour away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.43 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Nabatiya attack 0.62 + Tadamon Sour defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.02

Tadamon Sour attack 0.78 + Al Ahli Nabatiya defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Ahli Nabatiya scores more
36%
level
31%
Tadamon Sour scores more
33%

Al Ahli Nabatiya at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Ahli Nabatiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ahli Nabatiya vs Tadamon Sour

Al Ahli Nabatiya and Tadamon Sour drew 0-0 in Premier League on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Kafar El Jouz Stadium in Nabatieh.