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Tadamon Sour vs Al Ahed — Premier League 2019

Tadamon Sour
Tadamon Sour
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Ahed
Al Ahed
4/24/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Championship Round - 3Abbas Naser Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Tadamon Sour21%
×Draw26%
Al Ahed53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tadamon Sour
0.86
Al Ahed
1.53

Al Ahed creates 78% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 76 away

creates per match

Tadamon Sour
0.89
Al Ahed
1.93

allows per match

Tadamon Sour
1.13
Al Ahed
0.84

finishing

Tadamon Sour+0.00on par
Al Ahed+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tadamon Sour ↓

Al Ahed →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tadamon Sour or draw
47%
Tadamon Sour or Al Ahed
74%
Draw or Al Ahed
79%

Winning margin

Tadamon Sour wins by 2+
7%
Al Ahed wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Tadamon Sour 1+ goals
58%
Tadamon Sour 2+ goals
21%
Tadamon Sour 3+ goals
6%
Al Ahed 1+ goals
78%
Al Ahed 2+ goals
45%
Al Ahed 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Tadamon Sour (draw refunded)
29%
Al Ahed (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tadamon Sour at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.13 · 61 matches

Al Ahed away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.84 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tadamon Sour attack 0.89 + Al Ahed defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.86

Al Ahed attack 1.93 + Tadamon Sour defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tadamon Sour scores more
21%
level
26%
Al Ahed scores more
53%

Al Ahed at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al Ahed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tadamon Sour vs Al Ahed

Tadamon Sour beat Al Ahed 1-0 in Premier League on April 24, 2025.

The match was played at Abbas Naser Stadium in Aabbasiyyeh.