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Al Ahed vs Tadamon Sour — Premier League 2019

Al Ahed
Al Ahed
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tadamon Sour
Tadamon Sour
5/24/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Championship Round - 8Fouad Shehab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Al Ahed56%
×Draw25%
Tadamon Sour20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahed
1.62
Tadamon Sour
0.85

Al Ahed creates 91% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 72 away

creates per match

Al Ahed
1.81
Tadamon Sour
0.78

allows per match

Al Ahed
0.93
Tadamon Sour
1.43

finishing

Al Ahed+0.00on par
Tadamon Sour+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahed ↓

Tadamon Sour →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Ahed or draw
80%
Al Ahed or Tadamon Sour
75%
Draw or Tadamon Sour
44%

Winning margin

Al Ahed wins by 2+
30%
Tadamon Sour wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al Ahed 1+ goals
80%
Al Ahed 2+ goals
48%
Al Ahed 3+ goals
22%
Tadamon Sour 1+ goals
57%
Tadamon Sour 2+ goals
21%
Tadamon Sour 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Ahed (draw refunded)
74%
Tadamon Sour (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahed at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.93 · 59 matches

Tadamon Sour away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.43 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahed attack 1.81 + Tadamon Sour defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.62

Tadamon Sour attack 0.78 + Al Ahed defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Al Ahed scores more
56%
level
25%
Tadamon Sour scores more
20%

Al Ahed at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Al Ahed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Ahed 3–0 Tadamon Sour

Al Ahed beat Tadamon Sour 3-0 in Premier League on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Fouad Shehab Stadium in Jounie.