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Tacuary vs Sportivo Luqueno — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Tacuary
Tacuary
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
2/3/2024Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 4Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Tacuary39%
×Draw27%
Sportivo Luqueno34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tacuary
1.28
Sportivo Luqueno
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 86 away

creates per match

Tacuary
1.12
Sportivo Luqueno
1.00

allows per match

Tacuary
1.39
Sportivo Luqueno
1.44

finishing

Tacuary+0.00on par
Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacuary ↓

Sportivo Luqueno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tacuary or draw
66%
Tacuary or Sportivo Luqueno
73%
Draw or Sportivo Luqueno
61%

Winning margin

Tacuary wins by 2+
17%
Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tacuary 1+ goals
72%
Tacuary 2+ goals
37%
Tacuary 3+ goals
14%
Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
70%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
33%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tacuary (draw refunded)
53%
Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacuary at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Sportivo Luqueno away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacuary attack 1.12 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.00 + Tacuary defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tacuary scores more
39%
level
27%
Sportivo Luqueno scores more
34%

Tacuary at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tacuary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tacuary vs Sportivo Luqueno

Tacuary and Sportivo Luqueno drew 1-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni in Asunción.