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Sportivo Luqueno vs Tacuary — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tacuary
Tacuary
3/26/2023Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 9Estadio Feliciano Cáceres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sportivo Luqueno45%
×Draw28%
Tacuary27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Luqueno
1.35
Tacuary
0.97

Sportivo Luqueno creates 39% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 33 away

creates per match

Sportivo Luqueno
1.13
Tacuary
0.64

allows per match

Sportivo Luqueno
1.30
Tacuary
1.58

finishing

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par
Tacuary+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Luqueno ↓

Tacuary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sportivo Luqueno or draw
73%
Sportivo Luqueno or Tacuary
72%
Draw or Tacuary
55%

Winning margin

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
21%
Tacuary wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
74%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
39%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
15%
Tacuary 1+ goals
62%
Tacuary 2+ goals
25%
Tacuary 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
63%
Tacuary (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Luqueno at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.30 · 86 matches

Tacuary away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.13 + Tacuary defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Tacuary attack 0.64 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sportivo Luqueno scores more
45%
level
28%
Tacuary scores more
27%

Sportivo Luqueno at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sportivo Luqueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportivo Luqueno vs Tacuary

Sportivo Luqueno beat Tacuary 2-0 in Division Profesional - Apertura on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Feliciano Cáceres in Luque.