Tacuary 1–4 RB Bragantino: Result & Stats

Tacuary

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

RB Bragantino

Edson Caríus 22'

Gustavinho 77'

Talisson 62'

Alerrandro 49'

Juninho Capixaba 39'

4/7/2023

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 1Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tacuary18%

×Draw19%

RB Bragantino63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TacuaryExpected goals in this matchRB Bragantino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

2.40

Tacuary

1.22

RB Bragantino

2.40

RB Bragantino creates 97% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 19 away

1.33

creates per match

1.79

3.00

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Tacuary

1.33

RB Bragantino

1.79

allows per match

Tacuary

3.00

RB Bragantino

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tacuary+0.00on par

RB Bragantino+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacuary ↓

RB Bragantino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Tacuary or draw

37%

Tacuary or RB Bragantino

81%

Draw or RB Bragantino

82%

Winning margin

Tacuary wins by 2+

7%

RB Bragantino wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Tacuary 1+ goals

70%

Tacuary 2+ goals

34%

Tacuary 3+ goals

12%

RB Bragantino 1+ goals

91%

RB Bragantino 2+ goals

69%

RB Bragantino 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Tacuary (draw refunded)

22%

RB Bragantino (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacuary at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

RB Bragantino away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacuary attack 1.33 + RB Bragantino defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

RB Bragantino attack 1.79 + Tacuary defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tacuary scores more

18%

level

19%

RB Bragantino scores more

63%

RB Bragantino at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "RB Bragantino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

Juninho Capixaba

RB Bragantino · D

9.5

Match Events

22'

Edson Caríus↳ I. Valdez

26'

Sorriso

39'

Juninho Capixaba

45+2'

Nicolás Lugano

49'

Alerrandro↳ Juninho Capixaba

62'

Talisson↳ Bruninho

68'

M. Benítez← G. Medina

68'

A. Fernández← N. Lugano

68'

E. Benítez← L. Martínez

68'

Everton← Talisson

68'

T. Borbas← Alerrandro

68'

Gustavinho← Sorriso

74'

Patryck Ferreira← Edson Caríus

74'

A. Oviedo← E. Alfonso

76'

Eduardo Sasha← Bruninho

76'

Lucas Evangelista← Jadsom Silva

77'

Gustavinho↳ Everton

90'

Javier Fleitas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TacuaryRB

Overview

26%Possession74%

9Total Shots29

1Corners10

8Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots29

3On Target11

4Off Target7

2Blocked11

5Inside Box16

4Outside Box13

Passing

26%Possession74%

196Total Passes543

107Accurate Passes446

55%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Tacuary 1–4 RB Bragantino

RB Bragantino beat Tacuary 4-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 7, 2023.

Goals: Edson Caríus (22'), Juninho Capixaba (39'), Alerrandro (49'), Talisson (62'), Gustavinho (77').

RB Bragantino controlled possession (74%) and registered 29 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Defensores del Chaco in Asunción.

Tacuary vs RB Bragantino — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Tacuary 1–4 RB Bragantino