RB Bragantino 7–1 Tacuary: Result & Stats

RB Bragantino

FT

7 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Tacuary

T. Borbas 87'

Eduardo Sasha 49', 48', 21'

Sorriso 29', 6'

Lucas Evangelista 19'

Ó. Ruíz 39'

6/28/2023

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 6Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

RB Bragantino76%

×Draw14%

Tacuary10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RB BragantinoExpected goals in this matchTacuary

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

1.04

RB Bragantino

3.00

Tacuary

1.04

RB Bragantino creates 188% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

1.33

0.76

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

RB Bragantino

2.00

Tacuary

1.33

allows per match

RB Bragantino

0.76

Tacuary

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RB Bragantino+0.00on par

Tacuary+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Bragantino ↓

Tacuary →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

RB Bragantino or draw

90%

RB Bragantino or Tacuary

86%

Draw or Tacuary

24%

Winning margin

RB Bragantino wins by 2+

56%

Tacuary wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

RB Bragantino 1+ goals

95%

RB Bragantino 2+ goals

79%

RB Bragantino 3+ goals

56%

Tacuary 1+ goals

65%

Tacuary 2+ goals

28%

Tacuary 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

RB Bragantino (draw refunded)

88%

Tacuary (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Bragantino at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Tacuary away — creates 1.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Bragantino attack 2.00 + Tacuary defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Tacuary attack 1.33 + RB Bragantino defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

RB Bragantino scores more

76%

level

14%

Tacuary scores more

10%

RB Bragantino at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "RB Bragantino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Eduardo Sasha

RB Bragantino · F

9.9

Match Events

6'

Sorriso

19'

Lucas Evangelista↳ Vitinho

21'

Eduardo Sasha↳ Guilherme Lopes

29'

Sorriso

36'

L. Romero← E. Alfonso

39'

Ó. Ruíz↳ D. Rodríguez

40'

Aderlan

48'

Eduardo Sasha↳ Eduardo Santos

49'

Eduardo Sasha↳ Guilherme Lopes

60'

A. Amarilla← Ó. Ruíz

61'

G. Medina← J. González

61'

M. Núñez← Edson Caríus

64'

T. Borbas← Eduardo Sasha

64'

Gustavinho← Lucas Evangelista

64'

J. Hurtado← Aderlan

75'

Alerrandro← Sorriso

75'

Praxedes← Eric Ramires

79'

R. Ortiz← D. Rodríguez

81'

Andrés Hurtado

87'

T. Borbas

90+2'

Vitinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RBTacuary

Overview

79%Possession21%

25Total Shots5

3Corners2

6Fouls11

Shots

25Total Shots5

13On Target3

9Off Target0

3Blocked2

11Inside Box3

14Outside Box2

Passing

79%Possession21%

726Total Passes187

651Accurate Passes93

90%Pass Accuracy50%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

6Fouls11

3Yellow Cards0

1Offsides3