Tacuary 3–1 Oriente Petrolero: Result & Stats

Tacuary

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Oriente Petrolero

E. Alfonso 57'

Edson Caríus 52', 14'

C. Álvarez 29' (pen)

5/2/2023

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 3Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tacuary39%

×Draw22%

Oriente Petrolero39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TacuaryExpected goals in this matchOriente Petrolero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.80

Tacuary

1.81

Oriente Petrolero

1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

1.33

creates per match

0.60

3.00

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Tacuary

1.33

Oriente Petrolero

0.60

allows per match

Tacuary

3.00

Oriente Petrolero

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tacuary+0.00on par

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacuary ↓

Oriente Petrolero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Tacuary or draw

61%

Tacuary or Oriente Petrolero

78%

Draw or Oriente Petrolero

61%

Winning margin

Tacuary wins by 2+

21%

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Tacuary 1+ goals

84%

Tacuary 2+ goals

54%

Tacuary 3+ goals

27%

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals

83%

Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals

54%

Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Tacuary (draw refunded)

50%

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacuary at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Oriente Petrolero away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacuary attack 1.33 + Oriente Petrolero defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.81

Oriente Petrolero attack 0.60 + Tacuary defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tacuary scores more

39%

level

22%

Oriente Petrolero scores more

39%

Tacuary at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tacuary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

Edson Caríus

Tacuary · F

8.3

Match Events

8'

Luis Cabral

14'

Edson Caríus↳ D. Rodríguez

29'

C. ÁlvarezPenalty

44'

45+1'

45'

46'

46'

Patryck Ferreira← A. Amarilla

52'

Edson Caríus↳ E. Alfonso

56'

R. Domínguez← J. González

56'

J. Vargas← A. Ampuero

57'

E. Alfonso↳ Patryck Ferreira

67'

A. Niño de Guzmán← J. Cristaldo

68'

R. Sandoval← J. Sánchez

69'

M. Benítez← E. Alfonso

72'

T. Vidal← Edson Caríus

81'

H. Sánchez← C. Álvarez

82'

D. Cabrera← L. Villagra

88'

Ayrton Paz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TacuaryOriente

Overview

53%Possession47%

17Total Shots10

8Corners3

12Fouls4

Shots

17Total Shots10

7On Target4

8Off Target4

2Blocked2

11Inside Box4

6Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

393Total Passes365

287Accurate Passes283

73%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls4

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Tacuary 3–1 Oriente Petrolero

Tacuary beat Oriente Petrolero 3-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 2, 2023.

Goals: Edson Caríus (14', 52'), C. Álvarez (29' pen), E. Alfonso (57').

Tacuary controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Defensores del Chaco in Asunción.

Tacuary vs Oriente Petrolero — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Tacuary 3–1 Oriente Petrolero