Oriente Petrolero 1–3 Tacuary: Result & Stats

Oriente Petrolero

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Tacuary

D. Rojas 87'

D. Villalba 78' (OG)

M. Núñez 43'

Valdeci 30'

6/8/2023

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 5Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Oriente Petrolero45%

×Draw19%

Tacuary36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oriente PetroleroExpected goals in this matchTacuary

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

2.17

Oriente Petrolero

2.44

Tacuary

2.17

Oriente Petrolero creates 12% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

0.88

creates per match

1.33

3.00

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Oriente Petrolero

0.88

Tacuary

1.33

allows per match

Oriente Petrolero

3.00

Tacuary

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Tacuary+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriente Petrolero ↓

Tacuary →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Oriente Petrolero or draw

64%

Oriente Petrolero or Tacuary

81%

Draw or Tacuary

55%

Winning margin

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+

27%

Tacuary wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals

91%

Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals

70%

Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals

43%

Tacuary 1+ goals

89%

Tacuary 2+ goals

64%

Tacuary 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)

56%

Tacuary (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriente Petrolero at home — creates 0.88, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

Tacuary away — creates 1.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriente Petrolero attack 0.88 + Tacuary defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.44

Tacuary attack 1.33 + Oriente Petrolero defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oriente Petrolero scores more

45%

level

19%

Tacuary scores more

36%

Oriente Petrolero at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oriente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

49

M. Núñez

Tacuary · F

8.2

Match Events

30'

36'

42'

43'

46'

46'

J. Cristaldo← J. Berdecio

51'

A. Fernández← M. Benítez

52'

R. Domínguez← G. Medina

52'

Ó. Ruíz← Valdeci

54'

I. Valdez← M. Núñez

66'

J. González← L. Romero

76'

S. Alvarez← J. Mercado

76'

H. Sánchez← L. Villagra

76'

A. Paz← S. Guzmán

78'

D. VillalbaOwn goal

85'

Ayrton Paz

87'

D. Rojas↳ J. Sánchez

90+4'

Erwin Junior Sánchez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrienteTacuary

Overview

63%Possession37%

17Total Shots16

7Corners3

10Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots16

5On Target5

8Off Target6

4Blocked5

10Inside Box5

7Outside Box11

Passing

63%Possession37%

494Total Passes288

413Accurate Passes206

84%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2