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Tacuary vs Guaraní de Fram — Division Intermedia 2020

Tacuary
Tacuary
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Guaraní de Fram
Guaraní de Fram
M. Nunez 60', 55'
A. Zarate 33'
D. D. Benitez Samaniego 44'
7/12/2025Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 17Estadio Luis Alfonso Giagni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tacuary45%
×Draw27%
Guaraní de Fram28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tacuary
1.40
Guaraní de Fram
1.05

Tacuary creates 33% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tacuary
1.32
Guaraní de Fram
0.87

allows per match

Tacuary
1.24
Guaraní de Fram
1.47

finishing

Tacuary+0.00on par
Guaraní de Fram+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacuary ↓

Guaraní de Fram →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tacuary or draw
72%
Tacuary or Guaraní de Fram
73%
Draw or Guaraní de Fram
55%

Winning margin

Tacuary wins by 2+
21%
Guaraní de Fram wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tacuary 1+ goals
75%
Tacuary 2+ goals
41%
Tacuary 3+ goals
17%
Guaraní de Fram 1+ goals
65%
Guaraní de Fram 2+ goals
28%
Guaraní de Fram 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tacuary (draw refunded)
61%
Guaraní de Fram (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacuary at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.24 · 38 matches

Guaraní de Fram away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacuary attack 1.32 + Guaraní de Fram defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

Guaraní de Fram attack 0.87 + Tacuary defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tacuary scores more
45%
level
27%
Guaraní de Fram scores more
28%

Tacuary at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tacuary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
A. Zarate
44'
D. D. Benitez Samaniego
55'
M. Nunez
60'
M. Nunez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tacuary vs Guaraní de Fram

Tacuary beat Guaraní de Fram 3-1 in Division Intermedia on July 12, 2025.

Goals: A. Zarate (33'), D. D. Benitez Samaniego (44'), M. Nunez (55', 60').

The match was played at Estadio Luis Alfonso Giagni.