Guaraní de Fram vs Tacuary — Division Intermedia 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Guaraní de Fram36%
Tacuary40%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 15 home / 40 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Guaraní de Fram ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Guaraní de Fram at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches
Tacuary away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 40 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Guaraní de Fram attack 1.47 + Tacuary defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.44
Tacuary attack 1.27 + Guaraní de Fram defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.54
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Tacuary at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Tacuary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
2 de Mayo
3 de Febrero
Atyrá
Deportivo Capiata
Deportivo Santani
Fernando De La Mora
Fulgencio Yegros
General Caballero
Guaraní de Trinidad
Independiente F.b.c.
Resistencia
Rubio NU
Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Iteno
Sportivo TrinidenseTacuaryIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Guaraní de Fram host Tacuary on Monday, 7 April 2025 at 23:30. The match is part of the Division Intermedia 2020/2021 season.
Match Recap: Guaraní de Fram vs Tacuary
Guaraní de Fram and Tacuary drew 1-1 in Division Intermedia on April 7, 2025.
Goals: C. Herrera (7'), D. Godoy (86' pen).
The match was played at Estadio Villa Alegre in Encarnación.