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Tacuary vs Estudiantes L.P. — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Tacuary
Tacuary
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Estudiantes L.P.
Estudiantes L.P.
M. Boselli 77', 59'
N. Bareiro 75' (OG)
L. Godoy 56'
5/25/2023CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tacuary15%
×Draw19%
Estudiantes L.P.66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tacuary
0.92
Estudiantes L.P.
2.17

Estudiantes L.P. creates 136% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tacuary
1.33
Estudiantes L.P.
1.33

allows per match

Tacuary
3.00
Estudiantes L.P.
0.50

finishing

Tacuary+0.00on par
Estudiantes L.P.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacuary ↓

Estudiantes L.P. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tacuary or draw
34%
Tacuary or Estudiantes L.P.
81%
Draw or Estudiantes L.P.
85%

Winning margin

Tacuary wins by 2+
5%
Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Tacuary 1+ goals
60%
Tacuary 2+ goals
23%
Tacuary 3+ goals
7%
Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals
89%
Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals
64%
Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Tacuary (draw refunded)
18%
Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacuary at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Estudiantes L.P. away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacuary attack 1.33 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Estudiantes L.P. attack 1.33 + Tacuary defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Tacuary scores more
15%
level
19%
Estudiantes L.P. scores more
66%

Estudiantes L.P. at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Estudiantes L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
M. BoselliEstudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P. · F
7.9

Match Events

24'
Víctor Ayala
25'
Santiago Núñez
30'
Alfredo Amarilla
46'
R. Ortiz← Igor
46'
M. Benítez← Y. Villasanti
46'
J. Guasone← S. Núñez
49'
Rolando Ortiz
56'
L. Godoy
59'
M. Boselli↳ G. Benedetti
62'
L. Romero← V. Ayala
62'
E. Más← G. Benedetti
62'
E. Mancuso← L. Godoy
62'
M. Méndez← G. Carrillo
69'
Matías Godoy
71'
G. Medina← J. González
71'
S. Ascacíbar← M. Godoy
75'
N. BareiroOwn goal
77'
J. Gomez← Edson Caríus
77'
M. Boselli↳ E. Mancuso

Possession

Tacuary: 38Estudiantes: 6238%Tacuary

Shots

Tacuary: 9Estudiantes: 229Tacuary

Pass accuracy

Tacuary: 72Estudiantes: 8446%Tacuary

Statistics

TacuaryEstudiantes
Overview
38%Possession62%
9Total Shots22
1Corners5
17Fouls9
Shots
9Total Shots22
1On Target8
5Off Target12
3Blocked2
2Inside Box16
7Outside Box6
Passing
38%Possession62%
285Total Passes455
204Accurate Passes383
72%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls9
3Yellow Cards2
2Offsides6

Match Recap: Tacuary vs Estudiantes L.P.

Estudiantes L.P. beat Tacuary 4-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 25, 2023.

Goals: L. Godoy (56'), M. Boselli (59', 77'), N. Bareiro (75' o.g.).

Estudiantes L.P. controlled possession (62%) and registered 22 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Defensores del Chaco in Asunción.