Estudiantes L.P. 4–0 Tacuary: Result & Stats

Estudiantes L.P.

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tacuary

G. Carrillo 90+4'

E. Mancuso 81'

S. Núñez 71'

P. Piatti 63'

4/19/2023

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Estudiantes L.P.87%

×Draw9%

Tacuary5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estudiantes L.P.Expected goals in this matchTacuary

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.60

0.77

Estudiantes L.P.

3.60

Tacuary

0.77

Estudiantes L.P. creates 368% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

3.20

creates per match

1.33

0.20

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Estudiantes L.P.

3.20

Tacuary

1.33

allows per match

Estudiantes L.P.

0.20

Tacuary

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estudiantes L.P.+0.00on par

Tacuary+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes L.P. ↓

Tacuary →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Estudiantes L.P. or draw

95%

Estudiantes L.P. or Tacuary

91%

Draw or Tacuary

13%

Winning margin

Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+

71%

Tacuary wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals

97%

Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals

86%

Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals

67%

Tacuary 1+ goals

54%

Tacuary 2+ goals

18%

Tacuary 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)

95%

Tacuary (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes L.P. at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Tacuary away — creates 1.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes L.P. attack 3.20 + Tacuary defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.60

Tacuary attack 1.33 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Estudiantes L.P. scores more

87%

level

9%

Tacuary scores more

5%

Estudiantes L.P. at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Estudiantes L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

F. Zuqui

Estudiantes L.P. · M

9.2

Match Events

39'

Leonardo GodoyGoal cancelled

43'

44'

45+1'

45+1'

46'

G. Carrillo← J. Guasone

46'

P. Piatti← M. Godoy

46'

R. Pedrozo← M. Verdún

48'

63'

67'

67'

71'

72'

72'

72'

78'

78'

J. González← M. Paredes

81'

E. Mancuso↳ F. Zuqui

82'

Mariano Andújar

82'

Mariano Andújar

86'

D. Sappa← B. Rollheiser

86'

M. Méndez← M. Boselli

90+4'

G. Carrillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EstudiantesTacuary

Overview

72%Possession28%

21Total Shots7

6Corners0

8Fouls10

Shots

21Total Shots7

10On Target1

6Off Target3

5Blocked3

14Inside Box1

7Outside Box6

Passing

72%Possession28%

562Total Passes229

471Accurate Passes137

84%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

8Fouls10

5Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

4Offsides1

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Estudiantes L.P. 4–0 Tacuary

Estudiantes L.P. beat Tacuary 4-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 19, 2023.

Goals: P. Piatti (63'), S. Núñez (71'), E. Mancuso (81'), G. Carrillo (90+4').

Estudiantes L.P. controlled possession (72%) and registered 21 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi in La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Estudiantes L.P. vs Tacuary — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Estudiantes L.P. 4–0 Tacuary