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Tacuary vs 2 de Mayo — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Tacuary
Tacuary
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
2 de Mayo
2 de Mayo
2/18/2024Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 6Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Tacuary40%
×Draw27%
2 de Mayo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tacuary
1.32
2 de Mayo
1.17

Tacuary creates 13% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

creates per match

Tacuary
1.12
2 de Mayo
0.94

allows per match

Tacuary
1.39
2 de Mayo
1.52

finishing

Tacuary+0.00on par
2 de Mayo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacuary ↓

2 de Mayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tacuary or draw
67%
Tacuary or 2 de Mayo
73%
Draw or 2 de Mayo
60%

Winning margin

Tacuary wins by 2+
18%
2 de Mayo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tacuary 1+ goals
73%
Tacuary 2+ goals
38%
Tacuary 3+ goals
15%
2 de Mayo 1+ goals
69%
2 de Mayo 2+ goals
33%
2 de Mayo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tacuary (draw refunded)
55%
2 de Mayo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacuary at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

2 de Mayo away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.52 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacuary attack 1.12 + 2 de Mayo defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.32

2 de Mayo attack 0.94 + Tacuary defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tacuary scores more
40%
level
27%
2 de Mayo scores more
33%

Tacuary at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tacuary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Profesional - Apertura: Tacuary 1–1 2 de Mayo

Tacuary and 2 de Mayo drew 1-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni in Asunción.