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2 de Mayo vs Tacuary — Division Intermedia 2026

2 de Mayo
2 de Mayo
FT
0 – 1
Tacuary
Tacuary
5/26/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 9Estadio Monumental Río Parapití

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

2 de Mayo47%
×Draw26%
Tacuary28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2 de Mayo
1.52
Tacuary
1.11

2 de Mayo creates 37% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 40 away

creates per match

2 de Mayo
1.65
Tacuary
1.27

allows per match

2 de Mayo
0.96
Tacuary
1.40

finishing

2 de Mayo+0.00on par
Tacuary+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

2 de Mayo ↓

Tacuary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

2 de Mayo or draw
72%
2 de Mayo or Tacuary
74%
Draw or Tacuary
53%

Winning margin

2 de Mayo wins by 2+
23%
Tacuary wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

2 de Mayo 1+ goals
78%
2 de Mayo 2+ goals
45%
2 de Mayo 3+ goals
20%
Tacuary 1+ goals
67%
Tacuary 2+ goals
30%
Tacuary 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

2 de Mayo (draw refunded)
63%
Tacuary (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

2 de Mayo at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.96 · 77 matches

Tacuary away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

2 de Mayo attack 1.65 + Tacuary defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tacuary attack 1.27 + 2 de Mayo defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

2 de Mayo scores more
47%
level
26%
Tacuary scores more
28%

2 de Mayo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "2 de Mayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 2 de Mayo vs Tacuary

Tacuary beat 2 de Mayo 1-0 in Division Intermedia on May 26, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Río Parapití in Pedro Juan Caballero.