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Tacuarembo vs SUD America — Segunda División 2026

Tacuarembo
Tacuarembo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SUD America
SUD America
6/25/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 8Estadio Raúl Saturnino Goyenola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Tacuarembo42%
×Draw29%
SUD America29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tacuarembo
1.21
SUD America
0.95

Tacuarembo creates 27% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 70 away

creates per match

Tacuarembo
1.14
SUD America
0.96

allows per match

Tacuarembo
0.93
SUD America
1.29

finishing

Tacuarembo+0.00on par
SUD America+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacuarembo ↓

SUD America →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tacuarembo or draw
71%
Tacuarembo or SUD America
71%
Draw or SUD America
58%

Winning margin

Tacuarembo wins by 2+
18%
SUD America wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tacuarembo 1+ goals
70%
Tacuarembo 2+ goals
34%
Tacuarembo 3+ goals
12%
SUD America 1+ goals
61%
SUD America 2+ goals
25%
SUD America 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tacuarembo (draw refunded)
59%
SUD America (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacuarembo at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.93 · 96 matches

SUD America away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacuarembo attack 1.14 + SUD America defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

SUD America attack 0.96 + Tacuarembo defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tacuarembo scores more
42%
level
29%
SUD America scores more
29%

Tacuarembo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tacuarembo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tacuarembo vs SUD America

Tacuarembo beat SUD America 2-0 in Segunda División on June 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Raúl Saturnino Goyenola in Tacuarembó.