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SUD America vs Tacuarembo — Segunda División 2026

SUD America
SUD America
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Tacuarembo
Tacuarembo
11/11/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 21Estadio Obdulio Varela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

SUD America40%
×Draw28%
Tacuarembo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SUD America
1.27
Tacuarembo
1.11

SUD America creates 14% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 94 away

creates per match

SUD America
1.03
Tacuarembo
1.02

allows per match

SUD America
1.21
Tacuarembo
1.52

finishing

SUD America+0.00on par
Tacuarembo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SUD America ↓

Tacuarembo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

SUD America or draw
68%
SUD America or Tacuarembo
72%
Draw or Tacuarembo
60%

Winning margin

SUD America wins by 2+
18%
Tacuarembo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SUD America 1+ goals
72%
SUD America 2+ goals
36%
SUD America 3+ goals
14%
Tacuarembo 1+ goals
67%
Tacuarembo 2+ goals
30%
Tacuarembo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SUD America (draw refunded)
55%
Tacuarembo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SUD America at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.21 · 70 matches

Tacuarembo away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.52 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SUD America attack 1.03 + Tacuarembo defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tacuarembo attack 1.02 + SUD America defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SUD America scores more
40%
level
28%
Tacuarembo scores more
32%

SUD America at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SUD America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: SUD America 1–2 Tacuarembo

Tacuarembo beat SUD America 2-1 in Segunda División on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Obdulio Varela in Montevideo.