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Tacuarembo vs Oriental — Segunda División 2026

Tacuarembo
Tacuarembo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Oriental
Oriental
8/11/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 14Estadio Raúl Saturnino Goyenola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Tacuarembo38%
×Draw29%
Oriental33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tacuarembo
1.19
Oriental
1.08

Tacuarembo creates 10% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 69 away

creates per match

Tacuarembo
1.14
Oriental
1.23

allows per match

Tacuarembo
0.93
Oriental
1.25

finishing

Tacuarembo+0.00on par
Oriental+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacuarembo ↓

Oriental →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tacuarembo or draw
67%
Tacuarembo or Oriental
71%
Draw or Oriental
62%

Winning margin

Tacuarembo wins by 2+
16%
Oriental wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tacuarembo 1+ goals
70%
Tacuarembo 2+ goals
33%
Tacuarembo 3+ goals
12%
Oriental 1+ goals
66%
Oriental 2+ goals
29%
Oriental 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tacuarembo (draw refunded)
54%
Oriental (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacuarembo at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.93 · 96 matches

Oriental away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.25 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacuarembo attack 1.14 + Oriental defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Oriental attack 1.23 + Tacuarembo defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tacuarembo scores more
38%
level
29%
Oriental scores more
33%

Tacuarembo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tacuarembo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tacuarembo vs Oriental

Tacuarembo beat Oriental 1-0 in Segunda División on August 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Raúl Saturnino Goyenola in Tacuarembó.