Oriental 2–2 Tacuarembo: Result & Stats

Oriental

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Tacuarembo

3/8/2025

Segunda División · 1st Phase - 1Parque Palermo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Oriental43%

×Draw27%

Tacuarembo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrientalExpected goals in this matchTacuarembo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.10

Oriental

1.36

Tacuarembo

1.10

Oriental creates 24% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 93 away

1.20

creates per match

1.00

1.20

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Oriental

1.20

Tacuarembo

1.00

allows per match

Oriental

1.20

Tacuarembo

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oriental+0.00on par

Tacuarembo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriental ↓

Tacuarembo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Oriental or draw

70%

Oriental or Tacuarembo

73%

Draw or Tacuarembo

57%

Winning margin

Oriental wins by 2+

20%

Tacuarembo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Oriental 1+ goals

74%

Oriental 2+ goals

39%

Oriental 3+ goals

16%

Tacuarembo 1+ goals

67%

Tacuarembo 2+ goals

30%

Tacuarembo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Oriental (draw refunded)

59%

Tacuarembo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriental at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 70 matches

Tacuarembo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.53 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriental attack 1.20 + Tacuarembo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Tacuarembo attack 1.00 + Oriental defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Oriental scores more

43%

level

27%

Tacuarembo scores more

30%

Oriental at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Oriental will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff