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Tacuarembo vs Bella Vista — Segunda División 2026

Tacuarembo
Tacuarembo
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Bella Vista
Bella Vista
10/12/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 20Estadio Raúl Saturnino Goyenola (Tacuarembó)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Tacuarembo48%
×Draw28%
Bella Vista24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tacuarembo
1.38
Bella Vista
0.89

Tacuarembo creates 55% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 27 away

creates per match

Tacuarembo
1.14
Bella Vista
0.85

allows per match

Tacuarembo
0.93
Bella Vista
1.63

finishing

Tacuarembo+0.00on par
Bella Vista+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacuarembo ↓

Bella Vista →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tacuarembo or draw
76%
Tacuarembo or Bella Vista
72%
Draw or Bella Vista
52%

Winning margin

Tacuarembo wins by 2+
23%
Bella Vista wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tacuarembo 1+ goals
75%
Tacuarembo 2+ goals
40%
Tacuarembo 3+ goals
16%
Bella Vista 1+ goals
59%
Bella Vista 2+ goals
22%
Bella Vista 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tacuarembo (draw refunded)
67%
Bella Vista (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacuarembo at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.93 · 96 matches

Bella Vista away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacuarembo attack 1.14 + Bella Vista defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bella Vista attack 0.85 + Tacuarembo defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tacuarembo scores more
48%
level
28%
Bella Vista scores more
24%

Tacuarembo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tacuarembo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tacuarembo vs Bella Vista

Tacuarembo beat Bella Vista 4-0 in Segunda División on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Raúl Saturnino Goyenola (Tacuarembó).