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Bella Vista vs Tacuarembo — Segunda División 2026

Bella Vista
Bella Vista
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tacuarembo
Tacuarembo
7/6/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 9Parque José Nasazzi (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Bella Vista34%
×Draw27%
Tacuarembo39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bella Vista
1.21
Tacuarembo
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 93 away

creates per match

Bella Vista
0.89
Tacuarembo
1.00

allows per match

Bella Vista
1.63
Tacuarembo
1.53

finishing

Bella Vista+0.00on par
Tacuarembo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bella Vista ↓

Tacuarembo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bella Vista or draw
61%
Bella Vista or Tacuarembo
73%
Draw or Tacuarembo
66%

Winning margin

Bella Vista wins by 2+
14%
Tacuarembo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bella Vista 1+ goals
70%
Bella Vista 2+ goals
34%
Bella Vista 3+ goals
12%
Tacuarembo 1+ goals
73%
Tacuarembo 2+ goals
38%
Tacuarembo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bella Vista (draw refunded)
47%
Tacuarembo (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bella Vista at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

Tacuarembo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.53 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bella Vista attack 0.89 + Tacuarembo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tacuarembo attack 1.00 + Bella Vista defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bella Vista scores more
34%
level
27%
Tacuarembo scores more
39%

Tacuarembo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tacuarembo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bella Vista vs Tacuarembo

Bella Vista and Tacuarembo drew 1-1 in Segunda División on July 6, 2019.

The match was played at Parque José Nasazzi (Montevideo).