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Tacuarembo vs Artigas — Segunda División 2025

Tacuarembo
Tacuarembo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Artigas
Artigas
F. Mederos 13'
P. Fagundez 7'
6/22/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 7Estadio Raúl Saturnino Goyenola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tacuarembo48%
×Draw28%
Artigas24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tacuarembo
1.38
Artigas
0.89

Tacuarembo creates 55% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tacuarembo
1.23
Artigas
1.20

allows per match

Tacuarembo
0.58
Artigas
1.53

finishing

Tacuarembo+0.00on par
Artigas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacuarembo ↓

Artigas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tacuarembo or draw
76%
Tacuarembo or Artigas
72%
Draw or Artigas
52%

Winning margin

Tacuarembo wins by 2+
23%
Artigas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tacuarembo 1+ goals
75%
Tacuarembo 2+ goals
40%
Tacuarembo 3+ goals
16%
Artigas 1+ goals
59%
Artigas 2+ goals
22%
Artigas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tacuarembo (draw refunded)
67%
Artigas (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacuarembo at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.58 · 31 matches

Artigas away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacuarembo attack 1.23 + Artigas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Artigas attack 1.20 + Tacuarembo defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tacuarembo scores more
48%
level
28%
Artigas scores more
24%

Tacuarembo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tacuarembo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
P. Fagundez
13'
F. Mederos
Tacuarembo
Artigas
J. Fuentes
Manager: J. Fuentes
C. Bueno
Manager: C. Bueno

Match Recap: Tacuarembo vs Artigas

Tacuarembo beat Artigas 2-0 in Segunda División on June 22, 2025.

Goals: P. Fagundez (7'), F. Mederos (13').

The match was played at Estadio Raúl Saturnino Goyenola in Tacuarembó.