Artigas 1–1 Tacuarembo: Result & Stats

Artigas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tacuarembo

V. De Jesus 17'

D. Vicente 13'

9/14/2025

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 20Estadio Atilio Paiva Olivera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Artigas36%

×Draw26%

Tacuarembo38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArtigasExpected goals in this matchTacuarembo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.37

Artigas

1.32

Tacuarembo

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 29 away

1.13

creates per match

0.86

1.88

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Artigas

1.13

Tacuarembo

0.86

allows per match

Artigas

1.88

Tacuarembo

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Artigas+0.00on par

Tacuarembo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artigas ↓

Tacuarembo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Artigas or draw

62%

Artigas or Tacuarembo

74%

Draw or Tacuarembo

64%

Winning margin

Artigas wins by 2+

16%

Tacuarembo wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Artigas 1+ goals

73%

Artigas 2+ goals

38%

Artigas 3+ goals

15%

Tacuarembo 1+ goals

75%

Tacuarembo 2+ goals

40%

Tacuarembo 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Artigas (draw refunded)

48%

Tacuarembo (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artigas at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Tacuarembo away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.52 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artigas attack 1.13 + Tacuarembo defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.32

Tacuarembo attack 0.86 + Artigas defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Artigas scores more

36%

level

26%

Tacuarembo scores more

38%

Tacuarembo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tacuarembo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

D. Vicente

17'

V. De Jesus

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff