Tacoma Stars 1–4 Lane United: Result & Stats

Tacoma Stars

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Lane United

7/13/2025

USL League Two · Western Conference - 19Bellarmine Memorial Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Tacoma Stars31%

×Draw22%

Lane United47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tacoma StarsExpected goals in this matchLane United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.88

Tacoma Stars

1.49

Lane United

1.88

Lane United creates 26% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

1.80

creates per match

1.36

2.40

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Tacoma Stars

1.80

Lane United

1.36

allows per match

Tacoma Stars

2.40

Lane United

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tacoma Stars+0.00on par

Lane United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacoma Stars ↓

Lane United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Tacoma Stars or draw

53%

Tacoma Stars or Lane United

78%

Draw or Lane United

69%

Winning margin

Tacoma Stars wins by 2+

14%

Lane United wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Tacoma Stars 1+ goals

77%

Tacoma Stars 2+ goals

44%

Tacoma Stars 3+ goals

19%

Lane United 1+ goals

85%

Lane United 2+ goals

56%

Lane United 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Tacoma Stars (draw refunded)

40%

Lane United (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacoma Stars at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Lane United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacoma Stars attack 1.80 + Lane United defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.49

Lane United attack 1.36 + Tacoma Stars defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tacoma Stars scores more

31%

level

22%

Lane United scores more

47%

Lane United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lane United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff