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Tacoma Stars vs Lane United — USL League Two 2020

Tacoma Stars
Tacoma Stars
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Lane United
Lane United
6/23/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 13Bellarmine Memorial Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tacoma Stars41%
×Draw22%
Lane United37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tacoma Stars
1.93
Lane United
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 32 away

creates per match

Tacoma Stars
2.05
Lane United
1.41

allows per match

Tacoma Stars
2.24
Lane United
1.81

finishing

Tacoma Stars+0.00on par
Lane United+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacoma Stars ↓

Lane United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Tacoma Stars or draw
63%
Tacoma Stars or Lane United
78%
Draw or Lane United
59%

Winning margin

Tacoma Stars wins by 2+
22%
Lane United wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Tacoma Stars 1+ goals
85%
Tacoma Stars 2+ goals
57%
Tacoma Stars 3+ goals
30%
Lane United 1+ goals
84%
Lane United 2+ goals
54%
Lane United 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Tacoma Stars (draw refunded)
52%
Lane United (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacoma Stars at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

Lane United away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.81 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacoma Stars attack 2.05 + Lane United defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.93

Lane United attack 1.41 + Tacoma Stars defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tacoma Stars scores more
41%
level
22%
Lane United scores more
37%

Tacoma Stars at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tacoma Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Tacoma Stars 1–2 Lane United

Lane United beat Tacoma Stars 2-1 in USL League Two on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at Bellarmine Memorial Field in Tacoma, Washington.