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Tacoma Defiance vs Sporting KC II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Tacoma Defiance
Tacoma Defiance
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
7/8/2024MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 23Starfire Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Tacoma Defiance57%
×Draw20%
Sporting KC II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tacoma Defiance
2.35
Sporting KC II
1.45

Tacoma Defiance creates 62% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 51 away

creates per match

Tacoma Defiance
2.52
Sporting KC II
1.59

allows per match

Tacoma Defiance
1.31
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Tacoma Defiance+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacoma Defiance ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Tacoma Defiance or draw
77%
Tacoma Defiance or Sporting KC II
80%
Draw or Sporting KC II
43%

Winning margin

Tacoma Defiance wins by 2+
36%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tacoma Defiance 1+ goals
90%
Tacoma Defiance 2+ goals
68%
Tacoma Defiance 3+ goals
41%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
77%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
42%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Tacoma Defiance (draw refunded)
71%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacoma Defiance at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.31 · 54 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacoma Defiance attack 2.52 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.35

Sporting KC II attack 1.59 + Tacoma Defiance defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tacoma Defiance scores more
57%
level
20%
Sporting KC II scores more
23%

Tacoma Defiance at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tacoma Defiance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: Tacoma Defiance 4–3 Sporting KC II

Tacoma Defiance beat Sporting KC II 4-3 in MLS Next Pro on July 8, 2024.

The match was played at Starfire Sports Stadium in Tukwila, Washington.