Sporting KC II 1–4 Tacoma Defiance: Result & Stats

Sporting KC II

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Tacoma Defiance

4/23/2025

MLS Next Pro · Round 8Rock Chalk Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sporting KC II37%

×Draw22%

Tacoma Defiance41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting KC IIExpected goals in this matchTacoma Defiance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.90

Sporting KC II

1.78

Tacoma Defiance

1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 51 away

1.60

creates per match

1.65

2.15

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Sporting KC II

1.60

Tacoma Defiance

1.65

allows per match

Sporting KC II

2.15

Tacoma Defiance

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Tacoma Defiance+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting KC II ↓

Tacoma Defiance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Sporting KC II or draw

59%

Sporting KC II or Tacoma Defiance

78%

Draw or Tacoma Defiance

63%

Winning margin

Sporting KC II wins by 2+

19%

Tacoma Defiance wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Sporting KC II 1+ goals

83%

Sporting KC II 2+ goals

53%

Sporting KC II 3+ goals

26%

Tacoma Defiance 1+ goals

85%

Tacoma Defiance 2+ goals

56%

Tacoma Defiance 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Sporting KC II (draw refunded)

47%

Tacoma Defiance (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting KC II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.15 · 52 matches

Tacoma Defiance away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.96 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting KC II attack 1.60 + Tacoma Defiance defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.78

Tacoma Defiance attack 1.65 + Sporting KC II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sporting KC II scores more

37%

level

22%

Tacoma Defiance scores more

41%

Tacoma Defiance at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tacoma Defiance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff