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Tacoma Defiance vs Rio Grande Valley — USL Championship 2018

Tacoma Defiance
Tacoma Defiance
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
3/9/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 1Cheney Stadium (Tacoma, Washington)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Tacoma Defiance45%
×Draw24%
Rio Grande Valley31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tacoma Defiance
1.64
Rio Grande Valley
1.33

Tacoma Defiance creates 23% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 93 away

creates per match

Tacoma Defiance
1.62
Rio Grande Valley
1.25

allows per match

Tacoma Defiance
1.41
Rio Grande Valley
1.66

finishing

Tacoma Defiance+0.00on par
Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacoma Defiance ↓

Rio Grande Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Tacoma Defiance or draw
69%
Tacoma Defiance or Rio Grande Valley
76%
Draw or Rio Grande Valley
55%

Winning margin

Tacoma Defiance wins by 2+
23%
Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tacoma Defiance 1+ goals
81%
Tacoma Defiance 2+ goals
49%
Tacoma Defiance 3+ goals
23%
Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
74%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
38%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tacoma Defiance (draw refunded)
59%
Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacoma Defiance at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.41 · 39 matches

Rio Grande Valley away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacoma Defiance attack 1.62 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.64

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.25 + Tacoma Defiance defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tacoma Defiance scores more
45%
level
24%
Rio Grande Valley scores more
31%

Tacoma Defiance at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tacoma Defiance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Tacoma Defiance 1–0 Rio Grande Valley

Tacoma Defiance beat Rio Grande Valley 1-0 in USL Championship on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Cheney Stadium (Tacoma, Washington).