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Rio Grande Valley vs Tacoma Defiance — USL Championship 2018

Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tacoma Defiance
Tacoma Defiance
7/7/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 32H-E-B Park (Edinburg, Texas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Rio Grande Valley56%
×Draw22%
Tacoma Defiance21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Grande Valley
1.89
Tacoma Defiance
1.08

Rio Grande Valley creates 75% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 43 away

creates per match

Rio Grande Valley
1.44
Tacoma Defiance
0.95

allows per match

Rio Grande Valley
1.21
Tacoma Defiance
2.33

finishing

Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par
Tacoma Defiance+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Grande Valley ↓

Tacoma Defiance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rio Grande Valley or draw
79%
Rio Grande Valley or Tacoma Defiance
78%
Draw or Tacoma Defiance
44%

Winning margin

Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
32%
Tacoma Defiance wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
85%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
56%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
29%
Tacoma Defiance 1+ goals
66%
Tacoma Defiance 2+ goals
29%
Tacoma Defiance 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
72%
Tacoma Defiance (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Grande Valley at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Tacoma Defiance away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.33 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.44 + Tacoma Defiance defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.89

Tacoma Defiance attack 0.95 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Rio Grande Valley scores more
56%
level
22%
Tacoma Defiance scores more
21%

Rio Grande Valley at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Rio Grande Valley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Rio Grande Valley 0–0 Tacoma Defiance

Rio Grande Valley and Tacoma Defiance drew 0-0 in USL Championship on July 7, 2019.

The match was played at H-E-B Park (Edinburg, Texas).