Tacoma Defiance 3–3 Fresno FC: Result & Stats

Tacoma Defiance

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Fresno FC

5/26/2019

USL Championship · Round 22Cheney Stadium (Tacoma, Washington)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Tacoma Defiance42%

×Draw25%

Fresno FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tacoma DefianceExpected goals in this matchFresno FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.28

Tacoma Defiance

1.49

Fresno FC

1.28

Tacoma Defiance creates 16% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 34 away

1.62

creates per match

1.15

1.41

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Tacoma Defiance

1.62

Fresno FC

1.15

allows per match

Tacoma Defiance

1.41

Fresno FC

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tacoma Defiance+0.00on par

Fresno FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacoma Defiance ↓

Fresno FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Tacoma Defiance or draw

67%

Tacoma Defiance or Fresno FC

75%

Draw or Fresno FC

58%

Winning margin

Tacoma Defiance wins by 2+

21%

Fresno FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tacoma Defiance 1+ goals

77%

Tacoma Defiance 2+ goals

44%

Tacoma Defiance 3+ goals

19%

Fresno FC 1+ goals

72%

Fresno FC 2+ goals

37%

Fresno FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tacoma Defiance (draw refunded)

56%

Fresno FC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacoma Defiance at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.41 · 39 matches

Fresno FC away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacoma Defiance attack 1.62 + Fresno FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.49

Fresno FC attack 1.15 + Tacoma Defiance defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tacoma Defiance scores more

42%

level

25%

Fresno FC scores more

33%

Tacoma Defiance at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tacoma Defiance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff