Fresno FC 1–4 Tacoma Defiance: Result & Stats

Fresno FC

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Tacoma Defiance

10/6/2019

USL Championship · Round 58Chukchansi Park (Fresno, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Fresno FC62%

×Draw20%

Tacoma Defiance18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fresno FCExpected goals in this matchTacoma Defiance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.03

Fresno FC

2.10

Tacoma Defiance

1.03

Fresno FC creates 104% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 43 away

1.86

creates per match

0.95

1.11

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Fresno FC

1.86

Tacoma Defiance

0.95

allows per match

Fresno FC

1.11

Tacoma Defiance

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fresno FC+0.00on par

Tacoma Defiance+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fresno FC ↓

Tacoma Defiance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Fresno FC or draw

82%

Fresno FC or Tacoma Defiance

80%

Draw or Tacoma Defiance

38%

Winning margin

Fresno FC wins by 2+

38%

Tacoma Defiance wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Fresno FC 1+ goals

88%

Fresno FC 2+ goals

62%

Fresno FC 3+ goals

35%

Tacoma Defiance 1+ goals

64%

Tacoma Defiance 2+ goals

28%

Tacoma Defiance 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fresno FC (draw refunded)

78%

Tacoma Defiance (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fresno FC at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

Tacoma Defiance away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.33 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fresno FC attack 1.86 + Tacoma Defiance defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.10

Tacoma Defiance attack 0.95 + Fresno FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Fresno FC scores more

62%

level

20%

Tacoma Defiance scores more

18%

Fresno FC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Fresno FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff