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Tacoma Defiance vs Colorado Rapids II — MLS Next Pro 2026

Tacoma Defiance
Tacoma Defiance
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Colorado Rapids II
Colorado Rapids II
9/22/2025MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 37Starfire Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Tacoma Defiance54%
×Draw20%
Colorado Rapids II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tacoma Defiance
2.26
Colorado Rapids II
1.51

Tacoma Defiance creates 50% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 51 away

creates per match

Tacoma Defiance
2.52
Colorado Rapids II
1.71

allows per match

Tacoma Defiance
1.31
Colorado Rapids II
2.00

finishing

Tacoma Defiance+0.00on par
Colorado Rapids II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacoma Defiance ↓

Colorado Rapids II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Tacoma Defiance or draw
74%
Tacoma Defiance or Colorado Rapids II
80%
Draw or Colorado Rapids II
46%

Winning margin

Tacoma Defiance wins by 2+
33%
Colorado Rapids II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tacoma Defiance 1+ goals
89%
Tacoma Defiance 2+ goals
66%
Tacoma Defiance 3+ goals
39%
Colorado Rapids II 1+ goals
78%
Colorado Rapids II 2+ goals
44%
Colorado Rapids II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Tacoma Defiance (draw refunded)
68%
Colorado Rapids II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacoma Defiance at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.31 · 54 matches

Colorado Rapids II away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.00 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacoma Defiance attack 2.52 + Colorado Rapids II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.26

Colorado Rapids II attack 1.71 + Tacoma Defiance defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tacoma Defiance scores more
54%
level
20%
Colorado Rapids II scores more
26%

Tacoma Defiance at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tacoma Defiance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: Tacoma Defiance 1–4 Colorado Rapids II

Colorado Rapids II beat Tacoma Defiance 4-1 in MLS Next Pro on September 22, 2025.

The match was played at Starfire Sports.